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Inside fantasy football action with sports reporter Francis X. Bova of The Morning Journal in Lorain, Ohio

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Wednesday, November 28, 2007

The complete hindsight draft

Listed with the number is the actual pick taken back in August. Bolded is the hindsight pick, completely based on players' fantasy performances up to this point. I'm using only four points per quarterback touchdown passes as my gauge.

1. LaDanian Tomlinson -- Tomlinson was everyone's hands-down top pick, especially after his performance last season. He's having a very good year this year and would be worthy of his top pick standing. However, knowing what we know now, Tom Brady should have the top pick instead of falling to the middle of the fourth round, as he did in this league.

2. Steven Jackson -- Jackson has been playing lights-out for the last 3-4 weeks. However, it was those injuries that robbed him of four key weeks and 3/4ths of a fifth. If you held on to him, you're very happy with his recent performance, but chances are your team is probably struggling for a playoff berth. Instead of Randy Moss falling to the end of the fourth round, as he did in this league, the guy who has the second pick probably wishes that's who he would have taken.

3. Shaun Alexander -- Now, this pick was a colossal bust. Alexander has been banged up and just not playing well at all this season. He only has 43 total fantasy points this season. You think this guy would have been happier with Terrell Owens at this pick? Owens is currently the third-highest scoring player in fantasy football right now, and he fell to the first pick of the third round. He was the third WR selected behind Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison. I took Harrison. Enough said.

4. Larry Johnson -- L.J. had an up-and-down year prior to getting injured three weeks ago. Now, he may not return this season. That has to hurt all of those who jumped on Johnson high in the draft. The hindsight draft says you take T.J Houshmandzadeh, the fourth-highest scoring player in fantasy, at this pick. That would have never happened, since Chad Johnson is more flashy, but if you snagged Housh with the second pick in the fourth round, you're probably the frontrunner for a championship.

5. Joseph Addai -- Out of all the first round picks in this league, only L.T. and Brian Westbrook are outscoring Addai this season. That means that this league had a very poor first round this season. You can't fault this guy for jumping on Addai with this pick, but the hindsight draft says he would have been better off with Tony Romo, the second-highest scoring QB this season. Romo plummeted down to the second pick of the sixth round. This is the same guy who snagged Housh just two picks earlier.

6. Frank Gore -- Just one pick later, Brian Westbrook was selected. Westbrook is the second-highest scoring running back this season and the sixth-highest scoring player in fantasy football. Gore, meanwhile, is playing for a terrible team and is having a bad year. Last week's big performance only boosted him up to 92 points scored, certainly not worthy of a sixth-overall pick.

7. Westbrook -- What a head's up selection of Westbrook this turned out to be. He's been healthy and has been performing very well this season. He's the only bright spot for the Eagles this season, in reality. The hindsight draft says that Westbrook would have been already gone, so that leaves the "ageless wonder," Brett Favre, available for you to draft. Yours truly jumped on Favre with the second pick of the 13th round -- my one and only true value pick.

8. Reggie Bush -- Bush is having a pretty good year, with 132 points scored this season. That is bolstered by his receptions, and if you are a points-per-catch league, Bush is a machine. But the hindsight draft says that Bush shouldn't have even been taken in the first round. Instead, you should have taken Wes Welker, based on his performance. In August, you would have been laughed out of your draft had you done this, but you would have gotten the last laugh now. As it is, Welker wasn't picked until the second-to-last pick in the 11th round of this draft.

9. Laurence Maroney -- What a bust this guy turned out to be. An early injury meant more playing time for Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk, and since he's returned to the lineup, he's been the only guy in the Patriots' offense that is not a must-start every week. He's only scored 32 points in fantasy this season. This is where hindsight says Tomlinson should have fell, based on his performance this season. L.T. at No. 9 -- what a steal that would have been.

10. Maurice Jones-Drew -- This second-year back has had a very quiet season this year. It's definitely not one worthy of a top-10 selection in a fantasy draft. Drew has just over 100 points scored in fantasy football. In hindsight, you should have been a homer and selected Braylon Edwards with this pick. Edwards, who's been on fire this year, fell to the third pick of the seventh round. This owner took rookie Calvin Johnson with the pick just prior to Braylon getting taken. I wish I was more of a homer.

11. Willie Parker -- After a quick start this season, Parker has cooled off considerably this year. Drew even has more fantasy points than "Fast Willie" does this season. What was once considered a value pick is now a bust. He should have jumped on Chad Johnson with this pick. Instead, Ocho Cinco dropped three picks later to the first pick of the second round. Johnson's big game last week helped bump him up to No. 11 in fantasy points through 12 weeks.

12. Peyton Manning -- Finally, a quarterback was selected. Amazingly, he's not even the best quarterback in fantasy, nor is he the fourth-highest scoring fantasy QB this year (that distinction falls to the undrafted Derek Anderson). While Manning looked like tremendous value here in August, hindsight says this is the time to take Manning's top target, Reggie Wayne. Although, if you award six points for QB touchdown tosses, Manning may have stayed right here.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

No Priest?

What did I tell you about Priest Holmes?

It appears that, just two games into his improbable comeback, the Chiefs running back injured his neck, and doctors have advised him to hang it up. A news conference is scheduled for later today to make this announcement.

Larry Johnson is still out, and rumors are that he won't return this year. So, who does that leave for the Chiefs?

Do yourself a favor and go to your leagues website and type in "Kolby Smith" on your free agent search. Chance are he's still available. If he is, claim him immediately. Smith will be the de facto starter until LJ makes his return, whenever that will be. The Chiefs have a very favorable matchup against the Raiders and their weak run defense this Sunday. If you are hard up for a running back, Smith may be a good sleeper play. If he does well, you could even parlay that into a possible trade.

Claim Smith as soon as you read this.

What happened to the comments and questions? None whatsoever for the last two weeks. Ask me a question, tell me to bring back Off The Turnbuckle, something, anytning. I need some feedback, people.

Here's wishing you a very Happy Thanksgiving to you and your families. If you know me, you know I have a lot to be thankful for this holiday. Enjoy the turkey and the football.

Friday, November 16, 2007

Crazy Season

I thought this season was pretty nuts, but that doesn't compare to the illogical happenings of last week. For example:

Mnnesota came into last week with the best defense against the run in the NFL. So, of course, little-known Ryan Grant goes over the century mark in Green Bay's victory.
The Redskins have a great defense against the pass. Donovan McNabb had been playing like crap. So, of course, McNabb throws for four touchdowns in the Eagles' victory.
Vince Young, who had apparently forgotten he was a quarterback the last few weeks, finally remembered against the stingy Jaguars, throwing 41 times for 250 yards and a score. He did throw for two picks, but still.

And, last but not least, how about Peyton Manning getting picked off a whopping six times against the Chargers on Sunday night. Six times!!! And, the sad part is, he still finished on the plus side of points because of his yardage and his touchdowns. Amazing, simply amazing.

It's stats like this that makes us fantasy columnists just scratch our heads. I probably told everyone to sit both McNabb and Grant, and yet they go off even when the matchup isn't in their favor. That just goes to show you that statistics don't say everything.

Oh yeah, it seems Ricky Williams was reinstated by the NFL and the hapless Dolphins, because they have nothing else to play for, decided to bring him back. Remember that the Dolphins have nothing else. Plus, they're playing their rookie quarterback, John Beck. You know, the one they liked better than Brady Quinn so they took Ted Ginn instead.

If you claim him, keep him rooted to your bench until he can prove he's back in game shape and has a good game or two.

Go Buckeyes!

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Last-second updates

For your benefit, here's a complete list of today's games, and who I think you should start and bench from every team. If a player isn't mentioned, that means I don't have a feeling about them one way or the other, and you should start them at your own risk. Here goes:

Minnesota at Green Bay: START EM -- Adrian Peterson (Minn.); Brett Favre, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Donald Lee, Mason Crosby, Defense (G.B.). SIT EM -- Tarvaris Jackson, Chester Taylor, Sidney Rice, Troy Williamson, Visanthe Shiancoe, Ryan Longwell, Defense (Minn.); James Jones, Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson (G.B.).

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: START EM -- Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow (Cle.); Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Jeff Reed, Defense (Pitt.); SIT EM -- Jamal Lewis, Jason Wright, Defense (Cle.); Najeh Davenport (Pitt.).

St. Louis at New Orleans: START EM -- Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Jeff Wilkins (St.L.); Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston (N.O); SIT EM -- Issac Bruce, Drew Bennett, Brian Leonard, Defense (St.L.); Olindo Mare, Defense, Devery Henderson (N.O.)

Denver at Kansas City: START EM -- Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler, Jason Elam (Den.); Tony Gonzalez, Priest Holmes, Kolby Smith (K.C.); SIT EM -- Jay Cutler, Brandon Stokely, Selvin Young, Travis Henry, Defense (Den.); Damon Huard, Dwayne Bowe, Samie Parker, Dave Raynor, Defense (K.C.)

Jacksonville at Tennessee: START EM -- John Carney, Defense (Jax.); Rob Bironas, LenDale White, Defense (Ten.); SIT EM -- David Garrard, Fred Taylor, Reggie Williams, Dennis Northcutt, Marcedes Lewis (Jax.); Vince Young, Bo Sciafe, Justin Gage (Ten.)

Buffalo at Miami: START EM -- Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, Rian Lindell, Defense (Buf.); None (Mia); SIT EM -- J.P. Losman, Roscoe Parrish, Robert Royal (Buf.); Cleo Lemon, Jesse Chatman, Ted Ginn, David Martin, Defense, Jay Feely, Marty Booker (Mia.)

Philadelphia at Washington: START EM -- Brian Westbrook, David Akers (Phi.); Clinton Portis, Defense, Chris Cooley (Wash.); SIT EM -- Donovan McNabb, Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, Defense, L.J. Smith (Phi.); Jesse Campbell, Santana Moss, Shane Suisham, Antwaan Randle-El (Wash.)

Atlanta at Carolina: START EM -- None (Atl.); Defense, DeShawn Foster (Car.); SIT EM -- Joey Harrington, Roddy White, Alge Crumpler, Morten Andersen (Atl); Vinny Testaverde, John Kasay, DeAngelo Williams (Car.)

Cincinnati at Baltimore: START EM -- Carson Palmer, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Shayne Graham (Cin.); Willis McGahee, Matt Stover, Todd Heap, Defense (Balt.); SIT EM -- Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson, Chris Henry, Defense (Cin.); Steve McNair, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton (Bal.)

Chicago at Oakland: START EM -- Defense, Robbie Gould (Chi.); Justin Fargas, Sebastian Janikowski (Oak.); SIT EM -- Brian Griese, Cedric Benson, Bernard Berrian (Chi.); Josh McCown, LaMont Jordan, Jerry Porter, Zack Miller (Oak.)

Dallas at N.Y. Giants: START EM -- Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Nick Folk, Defense, Marion Barber (Dal.); Plaxico Burress, Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Shockey (NYG); SIT EM -- Julius Jones, Patrick Crayton (Dal.); Amani Toomer, Lawrence Tynes (NYG)

Detroit at Arizona: START EM -- Kevin Jones, Jason Hanson, Roy Williams, Defense (Det.); Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald, Neil Rackers, Anquan Boldin, Kurt Warner (Ari.); SIT EM -- Mike Furrey, T.J. Duckett (Det.); Bryant Johnson, Defense, Leonard Pope (Ari.)

Indianapolis at San Diego: START EM -- Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Adam Vinatieri (Ind.); LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers, Nate Kaeding (S.D.); SIT EM -- Marvin Harrison, Aaron Moorehead, Kenton Keith (Ind.); Vincent Jackson, Defense, Michael Turner (S.D.)

San Francisco at Seattle: START EM -- Vernon Davis (S.F.); Defense, Matt Hasselbeck, Bobby Engram, Josh Brown (Sea.); SIT EM -- Arnaz Battle, Joe Nedney, Maurice Hicks, Alex Smith, Defense, Ashley Lelie (S.F.); Nate Burleson, Will Heller (Sea.)

Good luck to everyone this weekend, except if you happen to be playing me in one of my leagues. In that case, you don't need any luck.

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Trades

This one is for all you commissioners out there, you know who you are.

This week, in two seperate leagues I take part in, there was a trade that was agreed upon, but then contested by one of the parties after it was accepted. Here are the two scenarios:

The first one, a guy sent out a whole bunch of proposals. One of the proposals was Hines Ward for LaMont Jordan. The owner who received this proposal accepted it. The guy who offered the proposal suddenly got a case of "buyer's remorse," and text messaged the commissioner saying not to approve the trade yet. Well, the commish approved it anyway. The first owner was, needless to say, a little miffed. He claimed that he didn't want the trade, that the commish screwed him, etc. The commish held his ground, as he should have, and the trade was not rescinded.

The other one was a four-player trade involving LaDanian Tomlinson, JP Losman, Earnest Graham and James Jones for Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez, Donovan McNabb and Marques Colston. Shortly after accepting this deal, the guy giving up Tomlinson e-mailed the commish (who also writes the fantasy football column in The Morning Journal) and asked to not approve it yet, that he had received a better offer shortly after accepting the deal and he was going to try to get the first party to reneg. I did him a favor -- I waited for 8 hours. After not hearing another peep, I approved the deal. I let both parties know that the trade was made since it was legal, and if the other guy had a problem with it, let me know. Apparently, he didn't, and the trade was kept. As it is, the guy giving up Tomlinson got the better end of the deal. His team outscored all 11 last week, while the guy with Tomlinson also won, but didn't put up as many points.

In both instances, the commissioner did the right thing. Sure, in most leagues, the commissioner has to approve any and all trades to see if it is fair, but 99 percent of the time, the commish is going to allow the trade to go through. In the first league's case, especially since the guy complaining was the guy who pitched the offer in the first place, he really didn't have a leg to stand on. In the other one, the guy was the accepter of the proposed deal, but, in reality, it's his fault for not waiting to see what else he could get. I gave him a break he probably shouldn't have gotten (I'm a nice guy), but in the end, the trade was approved and both teams were happy.

The moral of this story is, if you make your bed, you better lie in it, regardless of how unhappy you are with the finished product.