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Wednesday, November 28, 2007

The complete hindsight draft

Listed with the number is the actual pick taken back in August. Bolded is the hindsight pick, completely based on players' fantasy performances up to this point. I'm using only four points per quarterback touchdown passes as my gauge.

1. LaDanian Tomlinson -- Tomlinson was everyone's hands-down top pick, especially after his performance last season. He's having a very good year this year and would be worthy of his top pick standing. However, knowing what we know now, Tom Brady should have the top pick instead of falling to the middle of the fourth round, as he did in this league.

2. Steven Jackson -- Jackson has been playing lights-out for the last 3-4 weeks. However, it was those injuries that robbed him of four key weeks and 3/4ths of a fifth. If you held on to him, you're very happy with his recent performance, but chances are your team is probably struggling for a playoff berth. Instead of Randy Moss falling to the end of the fourth round, as he did in this league, the guy who has the second pick probably wishes that's who he would have taken.

3. Shaun Alexander -- Now, this pick was a colossal bust. Alexander has been banged up and just not playing well at all this season. He only has 43 total fantasy points this season. You think this guy would have been happier with Terrell Owens at this pick? Owens is currently the third-highest scoring player in fantasy football right now, and he fell to the first pick of the third round. He was the third WR selected behind Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison. I took Harrison. Enough said.

4. Larry Johnson -- L.J. had an up-and-down year prior to getting injured three weeks ago. Now, he may not return this season. That has to hurt all of those who jumped on Johnson high in the draft. The hindsight draft says you take T.J Houshmandzadeh, the fourth-highest scoring player in fantasy, at this pick. That would have never happened, since Chad Johnson is more flashy, but if you snagged Housh with the second pick in the fourth round, you're probably the frontrunner for a championship.

5. Joseph Addai -- Out of all the first round picks in this league, only L.T. and Brian Westbrook are outscoring Addai this season. That means that this league had a very poor first round this season. You can't fault this guy for jumping on Addai with this pick, but the hindsight draft says he would have been better off with Tony Romo, the second-highest scoring QB this season. Romo plummeted down to the second pick of the sixth round. This is the same guy who snagged Housh just two picks earlier.

6. Frank Gore -- Just one pick later, Brian Westbrook was selected. Westbrook is the second-highest scoring running back this season and the sixth-highest scoring player in fantasy football. Gore, meanwhile, is playing for a terrible team and is having a bad year. Last week's big performance only boosted him up to 92 points scored, certainly not worthy of a sixth-overall pick.

7. Westbrook -- What a head's up selection of Westbrook this turned out to be. He's been healthy and has been performing very well this season. He's the only bright spot for the Eagles this season, in reality. The hindsight draft says that Westbrook would have been already gone, so that leaves the "ageless wonder," Brett Favre, available for you to draft. Yours truly jumped on Favre with the second pick of the 13th round -- my one and only true value pick.

8. Reggie Bush -- Bush is having a pretty good year, with 132 points scored this season. That is bolstered by his receptions, and if you are a points-per-catch league, Bush is a machine. But the hindsight draft says that Bush shouldn't have even been taken in the first round. Instead, you should have taken Wes Welker, based on his performance. In August, you would have been laughed out of your draft had you done this, but you would have gotten the last laugh now. As it is, Welker wasn't picked until the second-to-last pick in the 11th round of this draft.

9. Laurence Maroney -- What a bust this guy turned out to be. An early injury meant more playing time for Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk, and since he's returned to the lineup, he's been the only guy in the Patriots' offense that is not a must-start every week. He's only scored 32 points in fantasy this season. This is where hindsight says Tomlinson should have fell, based on his performance this season. L.T. at No. 9 -- what a steal that would have been.

10. Maurice Jones-Drew -- This second-year back has had a very quiet season this year. It's definitely not one worthy of a top-10 selection in a fantasy draft. Drew has just over 100 points scored in fantasy football. In hindsight, you should have been a homer and selected Braylon Edwards with this pick. Edwards, who's been on fire this year, fell to the third pick of the seventh round. This owner took rookie Calvin Johnson with the pick just prior to Braylon getting taken. I wish I was more of a homer.

11. Willie Parker -- After a quick start this season, Parker has cooled off considerably this year. Drew even has more fantasy points than "Fast Willie" does this season. What was once considered a value pick is now a bust. He should have jumped on Chad Johnson with this pick. Instead, Ocho Cinco dropped three picks later to the first pick of the second round. Johnson's big game last week helped bump him up to No. 11 in fantasy points through 12 weeks.

12. Peyton Manning -- Finally, a quarterback was selected. Amazingly, he's not even the best quarterback in fantasy, nor is he the fourth-highest scoring fantasy QB this year (that distinction falls to the undrafted Derek Anderson). While Manning looked like tremendous value here in August, hindsight says this is the time to take Manning's top target, Reggie Wayne. Although, if you award six points for QB touchdown tosses, Manning may have stayed right here.

4 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about Adrian Peterson?

He still leads the league in rushing, and will suit up this week.

Chad Johnson had a great WEEK, but really struggled for a stretch.

November 29, 2007 at 11:22 PM 
Blogger Francis X. Bova III said...

I went based off the top 12 scorers in that same league through last weeks games and that alone. Peterson's missing the last two weeks allowed Chad Johnson to pass him. If Peterson would have stayed healthy, I'm sure he'd be in the top 12 of any league. If I just went with his average, he'd be over both Johnson and Reggie Wayne. On a personal level, I'd take Peterson over Johnson any day of the week. And, despite Brady's great season, I'm predicting that Peterson will be next year's top projected draft pick. Just a hunch.

November 30, 2007 at 7:09 AM 
Blogger Joel said...

Dan:
It's playoff season, obviously.

Here's a question: In my paying league, I'm the 2 seed, going against a tough 7. Three RBs, start 2: Jamal Lewis, Bush and Grant. I've been starting Grant and Lewis, I'm guessing you'll tell me to keep going with that.

Also, receivers -- start 3: Houshmandzadeh, Ocho Cinco, Moss and Welker. I sort of painted myself into a corner with two sets of two, which isn't such a bad problem to have when it's these four, but still.

Thoughts would be appreciated.

December 4, 2007 at 4:51 PM 
Blogger Francis X. Bova III said...

Joel, thanks for the comment and question. Here's my advice. You're right -- I'd stick with Grant and Lewis. They both have very favorable matchups and both are playing very well. It's hard to sit Bush, but other than catching 5balls a game, he's not doing much. Receiver-wise, you couldn't go wrong any of those four (it's also a good thing bye weeks are over). I'd go with Moss (Randy, I'm assuming) and Housh definitely. I'm a really big fan of Welker, but it's hard to not start Chad Johnson, especially since he's put together a nice string of games (although, I don't think he did so hot against the Steelers). I'd go with Ocho Cinco, especially since Cincy has a more favorable matchup vs. the Rams than New England against the Steelers. Good luck in your playoff game.

December 5, 2007 at 7:19 PM 

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