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Thursday, December 6, 2007

Top 12 For 2008

Since I have nothing left to play for (except pride) in two of my leagues, I've already started to look ahead for next year. So, for your viewing enjoyment and to give you a jump start on your preparations, here is a preliminary look at the top 12 players for next year's draft:

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota -- Surprised? Peterson should be the top guy, mostly because of his age and the fact that he's been so dynamic this season. He's a big play threat each time he touches the ball and is a reliable receiver as well. Plus, he's got a great offensive line in front of him. If Minnesota gets a decent QB behind him, look out! Caution flags are raised because he is injury prone and he may be a victim of the "sophomore slump."

2. LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego -- Tomlinson will probably be more of a sure bet than Peterson. This will raise a healthy debate as to who you would pick with your top selection, and it will be a debate that will be held for years between LT and AP. Tomlinson won't score 28 TDs again, but he's going to produce big fantasy numbers both on the ground and through the air, and he'll throw a TD pass or two.

3. Tom Brady, QB, New England -- You can certainly make a case for Brady to be the top pick in your draft, especially after his light's out season this year. He'll more than likely break Peyton Manning's record for most TD passes in a season this year. If he gets Randy Moss back, he should put up great numbers again. If you have a league that awards six points for TD passes, Brady should pass both LT and AP to the top of your list. Plus, the guy is super reliable -- never missing a start due to injury since he took over for Drew Bledsoe back in 2001.

4. Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis -- Addai is young, a dual threat with the ball and in a powerful offense. Remember how great Edgerrin James was when he was with Indy? Expect Addai to do the same. Before he was injured, Addai was among the leaders in fantasy points for running backs and overall. He's earned his spot as a top five selection next year.

5. Randy Moss, WR, New England -- This is contingent on if New England gives Moss a long-term contract after this season. Maybe a long-term deal will bring back the old malcontent Moss, but I think as long as he's winning and being a focal part of the offense, he'll be fine and continue to produce. If New England gets rid of him, Moss falls all the way out of the top 12. I honestly believe the only way Moss produces is if he stays with the Patriots.

6. Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh -- Parker isn't a glamourous selection. He's not a Larry Johnson or a Reggie Bush, someone who commands attention. But Parker does something those two guys haven't done consistantly -- produce. Parker will always have a great line in front of him and he's playing for a team that is committed to establishing the run. Plus, he's fast and is a reliable receiver.

7. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis -- If we put Brady in the first round, Manning deserves to be mentioned as well. Manning is the modern-day Brett Favre -- he'll deliver the stats, he's a winner and he'll never miss a start. Plus, he's part of a great offense with reliable receivers and a good offensive line. Even if he's missing Marvin Harrison next year, Manning will still produce.

8. Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas -- Like Moss, Owens has behaved himself this year, thanks to being a focal part of a top-notch offense that is winning ballgames. T.O. may finish with the best numbers of his career this season, which is saying something. He loves his quarterback, his coaches and his owner. A happy T.O. will make you a happy owner on draft day and during the season.

9. Tony Romo, QB, Dallas -- I think it's safe to say that Romo is for real. It will be interesting to see what happens if Jason Garrett takes a head coaching job during the offseason, but if he doesn't, Romo should explode again. Owens, Witten and a RB duo of Marion Barber and Julius Jones would make any quarterback happy and perform well. He's earned his first-round spot.

10. Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland -- A Brown mentioned in the first round? Seriously? Yep. Edwards is having the season everyone expected of him when he was selected third overall two years ago, and he should only improve as his career goes on. Plus, the Browns finally have a powerful offense, and that should be whether or not Derek Anderson comes back or not.

11. Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans -- I think everyone who reads me knows that I'm not a big fan of Reggie Bush. I think he's not an every-down NFL back, and he's proving it with Deuce McAllister out of the season. However, in a point-per-catch league, Bush is money in the bank because the Saints use him very wisely as a receiver, and he can still make things happen once he gets out in the open. Maybe it will be his third year where things finally come together for Bush. He stays in the top 12 mostly for his potential.

12. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis -- Jackson is redeeming himself with his performance since he finally returned from his injuries. He's showing the owners who drafted him or protected him why he was projected to be the No. 2 player in fantasy prior to this season. If he finishes strong like he did last season, Jackson has earned his spot among the elite fantasy running backs once again. What knocks him down is the unknown status of St. Louis' offense -- who will be QB, will Pace come back, who will be the coach, etc.?

As you can see, the running back myth is about dead. Quarterbacks are proving to be more reliable commodities, and receivers are finally getting respected among fantasy circles again like they were when Jerry Rice was in his heyday. In my opinion, the days of doing running back-running back with your first two picks to guarantee success is just about dead, and anyone who tells you otherwise is a fool.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dan-
First week of playoffs. I need starters.

RB- ADDAI is penciled in. Also have Fargas, Fred Jackson, Chester Taylor and Chris Browns. Need to start 2-3 of these (2 and possibly a flex spot)

WR- BERRIAN has already played. Larry Fitz or Bryant Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Joey Galloway. Need 2-3 of these as well.

Thanks Dan. Keep up the good work.

December 7, 2007 at 1:41 PM 
Blogger Francis X. Bova III said...

Eddie,

Fargas should definitely be your No. 2. If you need to start a third, Chester Taylor will still get his touches and touchdowns despite Adrian Peterson back in the lineup. Fred Jackson is a big unknown at this point, despite the great matchup.

Check the injury status on Fitzgerald today. If he's playing, you should do the same. Joey Galloway has had a great season and I would start him from here on out. If Fitzgerald is out and I had to start a third, I'd go with Bryant Johnson because who else is going to catch passes in that lineup? K.C.s QB question makes me want to shy away from Dwayne Bowe.

So, here's my total suggestion:

RBs -- Addai, Fargas

WRs -- Berrian, Fitzgerald (if healthy, if not Galloway)

Flex -- Galloway (Bryant Johnson if Fitzgerald is out)

If you have to start 3 WRs and then a flex (you didn't make that clear), if you think you've got a good chance with the rest of your lineup and the guy you are playing has a weak lineup, I'd take a flyer on Fred Jackson. But, if you're relying on big points from that spot, stick with Chester Taylor.

Good luck!

December 9, 2007 at 3:23 AM 
Blogger Unknown said...

Any fantasy college football coverage?

January 5, 2008 at 10:47 PM 

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